Friday, May 7, 2010

Cassandra

2 comments:

The Underground Pewster said...

Let those who have ears hear.

Will global socialism and the welfare state ever be recognized as the root cause of these problems?

Chuck Hicks said...

Thanks for taking a look.

Folks by and large still tend to view Dr. Paul as a nut -- even after his predication in 2005 that the housing bubble would collapse came to pass in '07. He wasn't merely speculating, but basing his prediction on the Austrian theory that central bank-suppressed interest rates cause misdirections of investments into unsustainable activities (the low rates causing the illusion that funds and resources are more readily available than they really are).

Here, he is a bit doom and gloomish; if there is a "flight into real wealth" (Mises), i.e. a mass flight from money to tangible goods, then a Weimar Germany scenario such as he hints at could come to pass. Short of that, America is headed toward a lower standard of living because, as he states, the debt has come due.

I think Dr. Paul's most interesting point pertains to 1971 -- the year the Nixon administration closed the "gold window." Since that time the U.S. economy (in terms of what has seemed "normal" to everyday Americans) has been credit-driven and inflationary. This is popular with the masses since everyone wants cheap money, higher wages and higher asset prices -- while complaining about the higher prices for short-term consumables that come with it. This sort of economy really began to come into its own during the Johnson administration. Since that time we have gone through cycles of asset booms and busts. Few people alive today can fathom a different set of conditions. Our collective memory is short. Perhaps we are about to learn a new lesson. Let's pray that it doesn't involve hyperinflation.