Wednesday, January 4, 2012

A Few Thoughts on Iowa

The results from the 2012 Iowa Caucuses were unsurprising but still disappointing.  In my view Ron Paul had to win in order to establish himself as a viable alternative candidate.  The high-profile caucus format was his best chance.  Having come up short it is highly unlikely he will win any state primaries.  I predict Santorum will fade, and Romney will be the eventual GOP nominee.  That will pit two status quo candidates in a clash of establishment titans in November.  Ron Paul’s supporters will not get behind Romney and there will be no cross-over “Blue Republican” support.  President Obama will be re-elected.

One interesting footnote to the Iowa race: the “evangelical” vote was split fairly evenly between Romney, Santorum, and Paul.  This debunks an annoying notion among hardcore libertarians that “evangelicals” are consistently against Paul and for big government candidates.  A lot of them are, but the younger ones like Paul.  They know they will foot the bill for the welfare/warfare state, and have a genuine problem with bombing people into embracing Western secular democracy. 

Nothing will change in the foreseeable future; there will be no voluntary return by the electorate to the country’s original principles, what Richard Hooker called “authority derived at the first…consent.”  We can only sit back and watch the unstoppable laws of economics gradually work themselves out against the hubris of “yes we can!”

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